Valascaziel wrote: I wouldn't peg it at 100%, but it is highly likely they will show something at E3.
I expect reasonably large presence for Shenmue III
Not going to happen. I don't know what you mean by large, but if by large you mean small, then maybe but I still think it's unlikely. Having a large presence at any event requires money, and if you've ever been to one of those events you know they sometimes has massive booths that cost tens of thousands of dollars to set up.
At the moment, Shenmue 3 probably has very little money set aside for promotional purposes. Per the kickstarter, NONE of the money from fans is going towards promoting the game. All of it, after fees, is for rewards and game development. Any money going towards promoting the game will end up being spent by Sony or Shibuya productions.
Consider some of the other "building the list" games that Sony's third party productions helped promote. They all got mentioned during Sony press conferences, but outside of that there was very little promotion done. The biggest title that came out of their efforts in the past was Yakuza 5, which didn't get much promotion from Sega. It wasn't until Atlus took over the localization and promotion for Yakuza 0 that they actually started marketing that series properly.
What I'm saying is that you might see something from Sony during their E3 presser, but there's not much evidence to suggest anything big will happen. But I'd love to hear some good arguments to the contrary.