Shenmue III and Red Dead Redemption 2 launch window

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Shenmue III and Red Dead Redemption 2 launch window

Postby The_Fuzileiro » Tue Oct 18, 2016 1:40 pm

Have you guys noticed that both Red Dead Redemption 2 and Shenmue III could be launched in the same period?
If rockstar decide to launch Red Dead Redemption 2 in december 2017, this could mean a disaster for Shenmue sellings.

This brings me memories of Playstation 2 smashing Dreamcast and Shenmue...
...Shenmue II beeing launched in a totally new platform (xbox) and beeing a commercial failure.

Ow my godness... please don't! #-o
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Re: Shenmue III and Red Dead Redemption 2 launch window

Postby Let's Get Sweaty » Tue Oct 18, 2016 2:04 pm

The_Fuzileiro wrote: Have you guys noticed that both Red Dead Redemption 2 and Shenmue III could be launched in the same period?


Yes ;-)
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Re: Shenmue III and Red Dead Redemption 2 launch window

Postby Hyo Razuki » Tue Oct 18, 2016 2:12 pm

December is the time of year when a lot of people buy a lot of games because of Christmas. There is no better time of the year to sell video games. That's why a lot of companies schedule their releases in November and December. That's no reason for Ys Net to shy back and postpone their game. On the contrary: Ys Net should make an effort not to miss the Christmas business.

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Re: Shenmue III and Red Dead Redemption 2 launch window

Postby Spaghetti » Tue Oct 18, 2016 3:02 pm

It means basically nothing.

End of year is a big game releasing/buying period, and Shenmue III's release window was chosen with that in mind. The games run in different circles and demographics anyway, and I can't imagine in any world in which they would somehow siphon sales from each other.

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Re: Shenmue III and Red Dead Redemption 2 launch window

Postby BlueMue » Tue Oct 18, 2016 3:22 pm

I wouldn't worry too much. There is high potential that one of the games can't meet the release window.
And even if they do arrive at the same time Shenmue III sits comfortably in it's niche and won't be affected very much by it's surroundings.

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Re: Shenmue III and Red Dead Redemption 2 launch window

Postby Peter » Tue Oct 18, 2016 4:07 pm

My money is on Shenmue 3 being delayed.

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Re: Shenmue III and Red Dead Redemption 2 launch window

Postby mceja » Tue Oct 18, 2016 5:44 pm

If shenmue III is a good game, there ll be nothing to worry about it.
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Re: Shenmue III and Red Dead Redemption 2 launch window

Postby Sappharad » Tue Oct 18, 2016 6:16 pm

Rockstar has a history of delaying its games. GTAV was originally due out in Spring 2013, it was delayed until September. The PC version, despite being a completely different situation got delayed multiple times. GTA4 was delayed as well, originally slated for October 2007 and eventually released in April 2008. The first Red Dead Redemption was delayed from April to May 2010. Pretty much every title Rockstar has released in the past 10 years has been delayed.

I think both games will probably get delayed. I don't think Shenmue 3 will have any issues meeting the deadline when it comes to assets that needs to be created (environments, models, etc.) but coming from a software development background I think their main development schedule is very aggressive. It sounded to me from the schedule like they're going to do the majority of the gameplay programming next year. Think of all of the stuff they'll need. Mini games, battle system mechanics, interactions with various world items like vending and toy capsule machines, fishing, menu systems, etc. Many of those things are independent from one another and can be worked on by different people. But if they want to meet a December 2017 deadline, they need to go gold by late October to ensure manufacturing time and even that's risky. Consider Final Fantasy XV as a recent example. The game was delayed so they could include what would have been the day one patch into the retail release. The original planned release was finished in August. The actual "gold" build that will be released on November 29th we know was finished at the end of September, exactly 2 months before release.

Back to Shenmue 3, if they want to release physical copies in December they need to be done by late October. They will also need at least 6 weeks for testing and fixing of problems. In other words, the game should be completely playable from start to finish with bugs roughly by the end of August. That's about 8 months for "full production" phase of development. It's possible for them to make the December 2017 release. I will be impressed if they do though. I don't know of any high profile kickstarted game that was ever finished on time.

I agree with others that say Shenmue 3 won't be significantly impacted by this. It's a very different type of game, and December is a great time for Shenmue 3 to come out because it will be at the front of people's minds when making their holiday wish-lists.

Edit: I forgot to mention that another big title in the Shenmue 3 launch window will probably be the FF7 remake. They've said it will be split into multiple games, it's been in development for at least a year and a half now, and I will be surprised if the first part doesn't end up being released during the 2nd half of 2017.

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Re: Shenmue III and Red Dead Redemption 2 launch window

Postby Peter » Tue Oct 18, 2016 6:36 pm

Great post Sapphard

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Re: Shenmue III and Red Dead Redemption 2 launch window

Postby shengoro86 » Tue Oct 18, 2016 6:37 pm

I wouldn't worry.
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Re: Shenmue III and Red Dead Redemption 2 launch window

Postby mrandyk » Tue Oct 18, 2016 10:16 pm

Peter wrote: My money is on Shenmue 3 being delayed.

I'm also not anticipating Shenmue 3 in 2017.

Even if the release is December 2018 there will just be some other AAA release to compete with. If they were so concerned about having the whole spotlight they would go with a release in the middle of the year.
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Re: Shenmue III and Red Dead Redemption 2 launch window

Postby Verderame » Wed Oct 19, 2016 8:44 am

Do anyone really believe that Shenmue 3 will be actually released in 2017? :mrgreen:
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Re: Shenmue III and Red Dead Redemption 2 launch window

Postby The_Fuzileiro » Wed Oct 19, 2016 10:38 am

So most of you are ok with the fact of a huge triple-A being launched with Shenmue. Well... sincerely I still not.
That's not a question of people being... like... spending all their money in another game and not buying Shenmue. For me, my fear is that all the spotlight will be focusing only one game, in case RDR2. This goddamn media should make Shenmue looks as tiny as Might N. Nine...

I know... 99% of your are ok with this, or just betting a delay should be announced, but I'm not.

It makes me chill just to imagine the possibility of another commercial failure.

Hope sony spend a really fucking good money on that merchandising they promised.

I'm nervous...
Last edited by The_Fuzileiro on Wed Oct 19, 2016 12:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Shenmue III and Red Dead Redemption 2 launch window

Postby Monkei » Wed Oct 19, 2016 11:06 am

So a major AAA title was announced for holiday 2017.

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Re: Shenmue III and Red Dead Redemption 2 launch window

Postby Yokosuka » Wed Oct 19, 2016 11:30 am

The tough competition around Christmas 2017 was predictable but Rockstar has no equivalent in gaming hype aside from Blizzard, Valve and E3. And it's RDR, a contemplative action-adventure game like Shenmue. The situation could have been better.

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