Securing Shenmue's future

[Rikitatsu]

I can see Shenmue 4 concluding the saga, and I'm fine with that if it was a HUGE game.
I mean, Shenmue 1 was rather small and short in comparison to 2. If you subtract the time you spend waiting around, it will be even shorter... Shenmue 2 was massive, and it covered like, 3 story chapters?... It was a fast paced and eventful game, and yet it sill managed to be longer than Shenmue 1, even with the time skip feature.

If Shenmue 4 is similar to 2 in terms of scale and length, then it would be possible to cram the remaining story chapters into it. There will be some compromises, of course. But it might be a better paced game as a result.

[Shenmue_Music]

I can see Shenmue 4 concluding the saga, and I'm fine with that if it was a HUGE game.
I mean, Shenmue 1 was rather small and short in comparison to 2. If you subtract the time you spend waiting around, it will be even shorter... Shenmue 2 was massive, and it covered like, 3 story chapters?... It was a fast paced and eventful game, and yet it sill managed to be longer than Shenmue 1, even with the time skip feature.

If Shenmue 4 is similar to 2 in terms of scale and length, then it would be possible to cram the remaining story chapters into it. There will be some compromises, of course. But it might be a better paced game as a result.

This isn't related to this topic, but in the Shenmue online trailer where Ryo confronts Lan Di and Joy is captured by a member of the Chi You Men. Do you think that will actually happen? If it does, that'll be pretty awesome, because that trailer was epic!

[ChiefNeo]

I've already given over 300. My plan is not to give any more until the game comes out. If the game comes out and it manages to make me happy, as I fully expect it to, then my plan is to go around like a moron, literally buying a retail copy here and there...indefinitely. I kinda facepalm at myself when I read that. I'm not a stupid man haha I am not made out of money...and yet, for Shenmue....this sounds like a fantastic way to spend what money I have.

I fully expect to end up with 10-15 copies of the game.

You could always just gift multiple random people copies on Steam; at least that way they'll go to good use instead of ending up as a sacred footrest

Nah, lol. I want people to buy it themselves. If I gift it, that's copies that others could have potentially bought.

[Monkei]

I've already given over 300. My plan is not to give any more until the game comes out. If the game comes out and it manages to make me happy, as I fully expect it to, then my plan is to go around like a moron, literally buying a retail copy here and there...indefinitely. I kinda facepalm at myself when I read that. I'm not a stupid man haha I am not made out of money...and yet, for Shenmue....this sounds like a fantastic way to spend what money I have.

I fully expect to end up with 10-15 copies of the game.

You could always just gift multiple random people copies on Steam; at least that way they'll go to good use instead of ending up as a sacred footrest

Nah, lol. I want people to buy it themselves. If I gift it, that's copies that others could have potentially bought.

Unless you know people who kinda care but aren't interested enough to spend money. Might result in new fans or word to mouth supporters. It would be ideal if everyone bought it of course, but still - the more people get to play it, the better.

[Rikitatsu]

I can see Shenmue 4 concluding the saga, and I'm fine with that if it was a HUGE game.
I mean, Shenmue 1 was rather small and short in comparison to 2. If you subtract the time you spend waiting around, it will be even shorter... Shenmue 2 was massive, and it covered like, 3 story chapters?... It was a fast paced and eventful game, and yet it sill managed to be longer than Shenmue 1, even with the time skip feature.

If Shenmue 4 is similar to 2 in terms of scale and length, then it would be possible to cram the remaining story chapters into it. There will be some compromises, of course. But it might be a better paced game as a result.

This isn't related to this topic, but in the Shenmue online trailer where Ryo confronts Lan Di and Joy is captured by a member of the Chi You Men. Do you think that will actually happen? If it does, that'll be pretty awesome, because that trailer was epic!

Nah, that scene looked like it was made for the trailer...

[Suzuki Yu]

I can see Shenmue 4 concluding the saga, and I'm fine with that if it was a HUGE game.
I mean, Shenmue 1 was rather small and short in comparison to 2. If you subtract the time you spend waiting around, it will be even shorter... Shenmue 2 was massive, and it covered like, 3 story chapters?... It was a fast paced and eventful game, and yet it sill managed to be longer than Shenmue 1, even with the time skip feature.

If Shenmue 4 is similar to 2 in terms of scale and length, then it would be possible to cram the remaining story chapters into it. There will be some compromises, of course. But it might be a better paced game as a result.

nah it's not going to happen without a huge compromises even if 4 was as big as 2 or bigger!
we are talking about 8 major regions outside Japan, Hongkong & Guilin are yet to be visited! BTW do we know the whereabouts of Baisha? if it's in a complete different region then there are 7 major regions left

i know with the situation the series is going through they will not be able to include every area that was initially in plan.
but at least with 3 more games but as big as Shenmue 2 they could at least add most of theses areas but maybe a little less ambitious in scale.

[ChiefNeo]

I can see Shenmue 4 concluding the saga, and I'm fine with that if it was a HUGE game.
I mean, Shenmue 1 was rather small and short in comparison to 2. If you subtract the time you spend waiting around, it will be even shorter... Shenmue 2 was massive, and it covered like, 3 story chapters?... It was a fast paced and eventful game, and yet it sill managed to be longer than Shenmue 1, even with the time skip feature.

If Shenmue 4 is similar to 2 in terms of scale and length, then it would be possible to cram the remaining story chapters into it. There will be some compromises, of course. But it might be a better paced game as a result.

nah it's not going to happen without a huge compromises even if 4 was as big as 2 or bigger!
we are talking about 8 major regions outside Japan, Hongkong & Guilin are yet to be visited! BTW do we know the whereabouts of Baisha? if it's in a complete different region then there are 7 major regions left

i know with the situation the series is going through they will not be able to include every area that was initially in plan.
but at least with 3 more games but as big as Shenmue 2 they could at least add most of theses areas but maybe a little less ambitious in scale.

Suzuki has said he only needs 4 or 5 games to end the story in a satisfactory manner.

[Suzuki Yu]

I can see Shenmue 4 concluding the saga, and I'm fine with that if it was a HUGE game.
I mean, Shenmue 1 was rather small and short in comparison to 2. If you subtract the time you spend waiting around, it will be even shorter... Shenmue 2 was massive, and it covered like, 3 story chapters?... It was a fast paced and eventful game, and yet it sill managed to be longer than Shenmue 1, even with the time skip feature.

If Shenmue 4 is similar to 2 in terms of scale and length, then it would be possible to cram the remaining story chapters into it. There will be some compromises, of course. But it might be a better paced game as a result.

nah it's not going to happen without a huge compromises even if 4 was as big as 2 or bigger!
we are talking about 8 major regions outside Japan, Hongkong & Guilin are yet to be visited! BTW do we know the whereabouts of Baisha? if it's in a complete different region then there are 7 major regions left

i know with the situation the series is going through they will not be able to include every area that was initially in plan.
but at least with 3 more games but as big as Shenmue 2 they could at least add most of theses areas but maybe a little less ambitious in scale.

Suzuki has said he only needs 4 or 5 games to end the story in a satisfactory manner.

i think he only said this because of pressure on him to deliver an end to the story.
what i read from his statement is that if the game was successful enough he will continue up to the fifth installment. but if it didn't do too well he will have to squeeze the story a lot with the fourth game just in trying to conclude it.

[mrandyk]

How many copies did Duke Nukem Forever sell on the "_____ years in the making" hype? If Sony is promoting the game it seems like it would be pretty easy to generate sales for a 4th game. If the game gets good reviews and more people are buying the game while ignoring that "_____ years in the making" hype, then we might have finally secured the future of Shenmue.

[Telekill]

Shenmue is special to all of us here at the Dojo (not a stretch). Of course, we would love to see Shenmue continue on into the future with another ten games but we need to be realistic. Sega gave up on Shenmue after two games. Yu Suzuki has stated that he will not be finishing up the story arc with Shenmue 3. That means that we need a 4th and I think that securing a 4th and hopefully having it be the completion of this story arc should be the main goal of the fans. This would allow for us to finally get the ending and is more likely to allow the series to be completely playable on not one, but two platforms (assuming Shenmue HD Collection is announced and released for PS4 and PC).

Now, how many sales are we looking at to secure a 4th and final game? Let's make some assumptions here.
1. Shenmue 3 is around the size of Shenmue 1.
2. We want Shenmue 4 to be the size of Shenmue 2 for better fleshing out of the final chapters.
3. 4th game will be on both PS4 and PC (or more platforms depending)
4. Shenmue 3 releases both in physical and digital formats on both platforms.
5. To be considered successful and create Shenmue 4, the third game has to make twice as much as what was put into its creation as we want it to be the size of Shenmue 2. That means the magic number is $12.6 million needed.

To give a range, we'll low ball the price of Shenmue 3 to $30 for the digital version and high ball it to $60 as we don't have the release price yet.

$30 per copy of Shenmue 3 to reach $12.6 million -- 420,000 copies sold
$60 per copy of Shenmue 3 to reach $12.6 million -- 210,000 copies sold

I think that Shenmue 3 reaching 500,000 copies sold across both platforms is very doable and that Shenmue 4 could easily be funded. Looking at the price range of the game if the full 500,000 or even 1,000,000 copies are sold, we're looking at Ys Net being very well funded for a 4th and hopefully final game. This would be enough to grease both Sega and Sony's pockets as well making the proposition of a 4th game seem positive to either of them (or both) for backing it.

$30 per copy x 500,000 sold ---- $15,000,000
$60 per copy x 500,000 sold ---- $30,000,000
$30 per copy x 1,000,000 sold - $30,000,000
$60 per copy x 1,000,000 sold -$60,000,000

So our speculative range of assuming at least 420,000 copies sold at $30 per copy all the way to 1,000,000+ copies sold at $60 per copy gives us the financial earnings range of $12,600,000 to $60,000,000+.

I don't think it's a matter of IF Shenmue 4 will be made. It's a matter of how long will it be before the ball starts rolling? Sega should be pretty happy with the financial results as it cost them nothing. Meanwhile, Yu Suzuki and YsNet should be proud that they were able to make a successful return of a basically dead franchise.

[KidMarine]

Buy multiple copies at launch if you want more Shenmue, this cannot be stated enough. I know it sounds expensive, but I've been putting money aside since late 2015 that I would normally spend on coffee and junk food and I've got £250 saved up. And I'm certainly not rich.

[Shenmue_Music]

Shenmue is special to all of us here at the Dojo (not a stretch). Of course, we would love to see Shenmue continue on into the future with another ten games but we need to be realistic. Sega gave up on Shenmue after two games. Yu Suzuki has stated that he will not be finishing up the story arc with Shenmue 3. That means that we need a 4th and I think that securing a 4th and hopefully having it be the completion of this story arc should be the main goal of the fans. This would allow for us to finally get the ending and is more likely to allow the series to be completely playable on not one, but two platforms (assuming Shenmue HD Collection is announced and released for PS4 and PC).

Now, how many sales are we looking at to secure a 4th and final game? Let's make some assumptions here.
1. Shenmue 3 is around the size of Shenmue 1.
2. We want Shenmue 4 to be the size of Shenmue 2 for better fleshing out of the final chapters.
3. 4th game will be on both PS4 and PC (or more platforms depending)
4. Shenmue 3 releases both in physical and digital formats on both platforms.
5. To be considered successful and create Shenmue 4, the third game has to make twice as much as what was put into its creation as we want it to be the size of Shenmue 2. That means the magic number is $12.6 million needed.

To give a range, we'll low ball the price of Shenmue 3 to $30 for the digital version and high ball it to $60 as we don't have the release price yet.

$30 per copy of Shenmue 3 to reach $12.6 million -- 420,000 copies sold
$60 per copy of Shenmue 3 to reach $12.6 million -- 210,000 copies sold

I think that Shenmue 3 reaching 500,000 copies sold across both platforms is very doable and that Shenmue 4 could easily be funded. Looking at the price range of the game if the full 500,000 or even 1,000,000 copies are sold, we're looking at Ys Net being very well funded for a 4th and hopefully final game. This would be enough to grease both Sega and Sony's pockets as well making the proposition of a 4th game seem positive to either of them (or both) for backing it.

$30 per copy x 500,000 sold ---- $15,000,000
$60 per copy x 500,000 sold ---- $30,000,000
$30 per copy x 1,000,000 sold - $30,000,000
$60 per copy x 1,000,000 sold -$60,000,000

So our speculative range of assuming at least 420,000 copies sold at $30 per copy all the way to 1,000,000+ copies sold at $60 per copy gives us the financial earnings range of $12,600,000 to $60,000,000+.

I don't think it's a matter of IF Shenmue 4 will be made. It's a matter of how long will it be before the ball starts rolling? Sega should be pretty happy with the financial results as it cost them nothing. Meanwhile, Yu Suzuki and YsNet should be proud that they were able to make a successful return of a basically dead franchise.

I still don't want it be rushed just for the franchise to end. I rather that they take their time and try not to cram the game or make it end too quickly, that could make it unsatisfactory. As long as they're all legendary (this is 100% guaranteed), I'm fine with it never having a conclusion. I just want to feel satisfied if/when it ends and not feel disappointed or confused if it ends up feeling like it was ended just to conclude it as quick as possible.

[jcjimher]

Good analysis, Telekill, but I think you should double the sales objective (or halve the estimated benefit). Not the full $60 of a game goes directly to the developer. I think the platform holder (Sony) takes around $10 of any $60 game. Steam takes 30% of any game sold on its store (I reckon PSN will be similar). Retail takes its cut from any physical sale, etc.

But yeah, if the Shenmue III project sells decently, and with the technical groundwork laid out by it, I think it's quite likely we will see a Shenmue IV to wrap the story.

[Valascaziel]

I see a different future. It is apparent that the vast majority of folks, even some who aren't Dojo members, wanted to see this series return. $6.7 million and counting isn't the result of the Dojo alone.

I hold Sony in very high esteem. Not just because of Shenmues resurrection, but by and large they have shown themselves to be in touch with what gamers want for 10+ years, arguably more than even the Big N themselves.

I expect if Shenmue is the big success it should be and YsNet does a great job, Sony will discreetly swoop in under the radar, much like they did with Shenmue III.

You'll see Shenmue IV, except this time the franchise rights will belong to Sony, having bought the series rights from Sega who had long forgotten it's existence. YsNet will be subsequently added to Sony's stellar first party development roster of studios.

You may call me grasping, but I firmly believe this is what they will do.

[Telekill]

I'm fine with it never having a conclusion. I just want to feel satisfied if/when it ends and not feel disappointed or confused if it ends up feeling like it was ended just to conclude it as quick as possible.

If there is no ending, I'm one that could never be satisfied. I need an ending. Hence why the last 15 years have been agonizing waiting for Shenmue to continue.

Good analysis, Telekill, but I think you should double the sales objective (or halve the estimated benefit). Not the full $60 of a game goes directly to the developer. I think the platform holder (Sony) takes around $10 of any $60 game. Steam takes 30% of any game sold on its store (I reckon PSN will be similar). Retail takes its cut from any physical sale, etc.

Thanks and I agree. I think with the minimum hypothetical return being at least double what Shenmue 3 was built on though, we should be good to get Shenmue IV. This is also assuming that many of the Shenmue 3 sales aren't from being on sale at heavily discounted prices or pirated. Lots of "ifs" floating about but I'm optimistic.

You'll see Shenmue IV, except this time the franchise rights will belong to Sony, having bought the series rights from Sega who had long forgotten it's existence. YsNet will be subsequently added to Sony's stellar first party development roster of studios.

As much as I would love this as I buy every Playstation, I think this could put off the PC part of the fanbase as they would be unsure where they stood with having new Shenmue games on PC. If Sony came out and stated that Shenmue would remain on Playstation and PC, then I don't think this would be a bad idea at all and it could cement the series into having the full story that Yu intended it to have back on Dreamcast.