In my humble opinion, I think the most basic good strategy to use, when you want to release a game as an exclusive one for your console, is to check what games are the most popular and/or best sellers, and then decide wisely what game of all of these would surely make consumers to purchase the console just to play that single game. Surely (especially nowadays), a new Shenmue game is one that would make consumers to purchase the console just to play it, but the problem is that they are not a lot of customers like these and I think that is why Microsoft's regional exclusivity deal failed.
That last point is proven in the recent
poll the Xbox magazine has, where (almost) everyone knew about TS, but despite Shenmue 3 winning the poll, there are a lot of people that does not even know if Shenmue is a game that ever existed. So, all the efforts must be applied to make the game a popular one, in a way that consumers they will love it (emotionally, mentally attached to it) and that they will wait for a new Shenmue (preferably Shenmue III), like a baby waits the milk to be fed... I think Yu Suzuki's try with Shenmue Gai was one of those, but again it targeted mostly Shenmue hardcore fans (and only in Japan).
Something Shenmue-ish must arise again, that will attract mainstream/casual customers, in a way that will transform their raw and brutal gaming instincts, to ones that they will find meaning and usefulness to play a game that will uplift their darkened spirit to a calm and noble one, so they will begin to "keep their minds as clean as a polished mirror"... Shenmue will work on them, like Orpheus charmed the beasts by the music of his lyre...
Edit: Thank you, "Who Really Cares?", for pointing out! Now, I have organized the "wall of text" into several paragraphs.