Shenmue 3 sales & franchise future

[shenmue852]

Valkyria Chronicles has sold almost 500k copies on steam despite being a years old port of a PS3 game.

Shenmue 3 will do 1 million easily.

500k won't be considered a lot for a new non budget release. Yakuza 5 sold just under 1 million worldwide, and it's only barely considered hit in Japan where it sold 600k. Sega doesn't consider the non Japan global sales (400k) a great success. Sony had to convince them to bother translating 5 at all.

Shenmue needs at least 950k to match Yakuza so it can at least look profitable.

[Himuro]

But that didn't work for Shenmue II on Xbox. I've never played any Witcher game, but from what I understand is that there are so many side quests to make it interesting even if you don't follow the main story. While Shenmue is all about the main story...

That didn't work for Shenmue II on Xbox because Shenmue II on Xbox was barely advertised and released without an official date out of nowhere.

[Yokosuka]

If I remember well, Xbox was still expensive as hell when Shenmue II released, the market was even smaller than Dreamcast.

[Himuro]

That too. Shenmue II only on Xbox in America was a bad, bad, bad idea. I'm pretty sure II would have sold MUCH better if it were given the regular DC American release it was supposed to have.

[Anonymous81]

As simplistic and brute force-ish as it may sound, I suspect the deciding factor will be 1) Marketing, and 2) Reviews.

If the game gets a massive marketing push from Sony, is shown at E3 in playable form, gets promotion on mainstream gaming sites, and those hands on previews are resoundingly positive, then the game has a chance to break out.

Then the game has to actually impress reviewers. We may not care what reviewers think, nor should we, but reviews, like it or not, have become an integral part of the success of video games. There's a reason some major publishers don't pay bonuses unless a certain metacritic score is hit, and that's because they know resoundingly positive reviews promote and sell their games.

If both of those happen, then the game has a chance to be a big success. If should at least make money no matter what, barring absolutely horrible marketing missteps, but I don't think we can predict how much or whether the game will be a "hit" until we start seeing the general consensus from hands-on previews and the strength of the marketing behind the game. (Which will also be a barometer of how much faith Sony has in the sales potential of what they see Ys Net putting together behind closed doors.)

Honestly? I doubt it will do particularly well. Just because of all the factors stacked against it even with its more favorable position compared to the first two games. I don't even think HD remakes will help tremendously, as it's likely today's reviewers would regard the originals poorly without significant enhancements in certain areas. I'd love to be wrong though and, as always, I maintain hope no matter what.

I hope Shenmue III is this massive hit that assures sequels and turns our beloved series into a phenomenon and it becomes the cool thing to be a Shenmue fan suddenly. I just don't know if that's really feasible or not. But as I said. HOPE!

One thing is virtually certain: It will do better than Shenmue 2 did.

[fittersau]

As simplistic and brute force-ish as it may sound, I suspect the deciding factor will be 1) Marketing, and 2) Reviews.

[..]

I hope Shenmue III is this massive hit that assures sequels and turns our beloved series into a phenomenon and it becomes the cool thing to be a Shenmue fan suddenly. I just don't know if that's really feasible or not. But as I said. HOPE!

One thing is virtually certain: It will do better than Shenmue 2 did.

The big problem is that besides Game Trailers, many other mainstream gaming sites don't appreciate what Shenmue is now. This wasn't the case back in 1999/2001. Shenmue was ground breaking and an amazing experience and if I recall correctly, it reviewed quite well. The problem now is many games have met and exceeded this experience by innovating and also increasing the accessibility of the aspects of the gameplay by discarding aspects which held Shenmue back.

All I want is a nice smooth continuation of what Shenmue was back then to now. A game "funded" by the fans for the fans. This however will not be how Shenmue 3 will be reviewed or rated. Because of our over zealous cries of GOAT, friends and reviewers already cast a cynical eye on the game. "I've enjoyed many games in my life, is it really the best game evah?" they will think. It will be reviewed against GTAV and the like, but for all the similarities, what reviewers won't be able to understand Shenmue is not about the features or even sometimes implementation, it's about the heart. What did Shenmue mean to us for so many years? They will never understand this.

I only hope Yu Suzuki can pull this off. I hope he can make another meaningful chapter of Shenmue exploring the relationships of Ryo and the people he meets in Guilin, while providing the interaction, fun and quirkiness we've come to know from the series.

You know, I was thinking to myself.. Why do I love Shenmue and others don't since I can see the whole game has so many appealing aspects which many of my current gaming friends like, for example, engaging storyline with likable and believable characters, plenty of mini games, solid gameplay through VF style combat (but QTE is not for everyone). When my friends also like these things as well, for example, one of them loves Red Dead Redemption for it's apparently amazing storyline, additionally had mini games. He also loves UFC. So I thought he might like Shenmue since it contains these aspects in a game. He probably took one look the link I shared about Shenmue, then ignored the rest and my subsequent retweets probably blocking many Shenmue dedicated twitter accounts in the process as I retweeted.. This person also blasted PlanetSide 2 despite being an ardent fan of BattleField.. for all it's similarities he said it was the worst game he wasted download on.. lol. People are set in their likes and dislikes. Their biases and their allegiances.

Fundamentally, Shenmue is not a game people can just jump into and understand. You need to let Shenmue into your mind. Shenmue is not so much a game, but a philosophy or more appropriately, Shenmue-do　莎木道, the path of Shenmue. A way of understanding your world through Shenmue. For us who have experienced Shenmue, it's something profound.

Can we really expect marketing to communicate this to this generation of gamers, especially the likes of Kevin VanOrd and Jim Sterling who hold a lot of sway in public opinion of today's gamers? I'm not so sure. These two in particular are quite jaded by experience. Nor should Shenmue try to cater towards these people, because it wouldn't be true to the fans or itself.

Don't expect Shenmue 3 to be a critical success, at best it will be begrudgingly acknowledged as a worthy sequel of Shenmue series that maintains a faithful continuation. At worst, it will be lambasted as yet another hokey ill-conceived, out dated, game by a Japanese game designer who's past his prime and out of touch with what gamers like in today's generation. Just don't get your hopes up.

If it's more of the same as Shenmue 2, you know I don't care what other people think. I know I will love it.

[Himuro]

I think that if they play their cards right they can appeal to gamers who like alternative games. I think sites like Rock Paper Shotgun, PC Gamer, US gamer, and other sites will be more than willing to try to get into it.

[johnvivant]

Shenmue is not so much a game, but a philosophy or more appropriately, Shenmue-do　莎木道, the path of Shenmue. A way of understanding your world through Shenmue. For us who have experienced Shenmue, it's something profound.

nice. Shenmue-do　莎木道

by the way off-topic, i know the kanji for Shenmue means 'sedge tree', yet when i look up the word 'sedge' it appears to be a kind of grass plant rather than a tree.



is the foliage/flower of the shenmue tree supposed to be similar to the sedge plant?

sedge flower head:


i'm just wondering why they chose the sedge kanji.

[shenmue852]

it's not a tree that exists in real life. in the game, it's a tree that bears sedge flowers.

[fittersau]

I think that if they play their cards right they can appeal to gamers who like alternative games. I think sites like Rock Paper Shotgun, PC Gamer, US gamer, and other sites will be more than willing to try to get into it.

I think you're on to something here. Rather than let the so called "big guns" of gaming "journalism" like Gamespot, IGN , Kotaku & Polygon get any exclusivity on review rights. Give it to these smaller, more open minded sites to experience first and write about their experiences with Shenmue 3. If the game is still a good product the smaller sites will say it like it is without bias. In a similar way to word of mouth reviews, this should set the tone for the other reviews.

[johnvivant]

it's not a tree that exists in real life. in the game, it's a tree that bears sedge flowers.

yeah, i know its a fictional tree, i just wondered why they chose the sedge kanji. if the flower is supposed to resemble the plant 'sedge' then this would explain it (which is what i initially thought). but when you actually look at the shenmue tree intro video the flowers don't really look anything like sedge. never mind just my curiosity - a fictional tree can be called anything - it doesn't have to bear any resemblance to the thing its named after.
https://youtu.be/UYrtW7lD0cQ?t=3m4s

[fittersau]

nice. Shenmue-do　莎木道 [..]

i'm just wondering why they chose the sedge kanji.

Surely you can see the connection, Shenhua is the flower of the Sedge tree?



Did a proper box art with this image here: viewtopic.php?f=37&t=47899&start=15#p1113791

[Anonymous81]

...

If it's more of the same as Shenmue 2, you know I don't care what other people think. I know I will love it.

I wholeheartedly agree. All I want is a true Shenmue game. But the topic was asking what we felt needed to happen for the game to be a financial success. In 2015, that means getting a good metacritic score and being well received by critics. (I don't like it, mind you - plenty of poorly reviewed games that I absolutely love.)

That said, as to your other points, I also agree it could carve out a niche among the widening segment of, as you said, gamers receptive to different, less mainstream experiences. And it could see some moderate success that way. My real concern though is: enough success to make Shenmue 4 and 5 a reality? I hope so but... I'm very, very skeptical. I mean sure we could do more Kickstarters, but I don't know if they'd have the same public impact and thus the same success the second and third time around. And if 3 doesn't deliver financially, it's doubtful Sony would throw their weight behind it again.

But like you, I'll be happy with the game just being a true Shenmue experience no matter what. I never thought we'd get Shenmue 3, so that's enough for me. More than enough. I just also know it has a tough row to hoe in terms of sales and positive perception. Shenmue 3's crowdfunding success has been nothing less than miraculous though, so maybe fate is with us and it will defy all those expectations. I hope so.

[shenmue852]

As simplistic and brute force-ish as it may sound, I suspect the deciding factor will be 1) Marketing, and 2) Reviews.

[..]

I hope Shenmue III is this massive hit that assures sequels and turns our beloved series into a phenomenon and it becomes the cool thing to be a Shenmue fan suddenly. I just don't know if that's really feasible or not. But as I said. HOPE!

One thing is virtually certain: It will do better than Shenmue 2 did.

The big problem is that besides Game Trailers, many other mainstream gaming sites don't appreciate what Shenmue is now. This wasn't the case back in 1999/2001. Shenmue was ground breaking and an amazing experience and if I recall correctly, it reviewed quite well. The problem now is many games have met and exceeded this experience by innovating and also increasing the accessibility of the aspects of the gameplay by discarding aspects which held Shenmue back.

All I want is a nice smooth continuation of what Shenmue was back then to now. A game "funded" by the fans for the fans. This however will not be how Shenmue 3 will be reviewed or rated. Because of our over zealous cries of GOAT, friends and reviewers already cast a cynical eye on the game. "I've enjoyed many games in my life, is it really the best game evah?" they will think. It will be reviewed against GTAV and the like, but for all the similarities, what reviewers won't be able to understand Shenmue is not about the features or even sometimes implementation, it's about the heart. What did Shenmue mean to us for so many years? They will never understand this.

I only hope Yu Suzuki can pull this off. I hope he can make another meaningful chapter of Shenmue exploring the relationships of Ryo and the people he meets in Guilin, while providing the interaction, fun and quirkiness we've come to know from the series.

You know, I was thinking to myself.. Why do I love Shenmue and others don't since I can see the whole game has so many appealing aspects which many of my current gaming friends like, for example, engaging storyline with likable and believable characters, plenty of mini games, solid gameplay through VF style combat (but QTE is not for everyone). When my friends also like these things as well, for example, one of them loves Red Dead Redemption for it's apparently amazing storyline, additionally had mini games. He also loves UFC. So I thought he might like Shenmue since it contains these aspects in a game. He probably took one look the link I shared about Shenmue, then ignored the rest and my subsequent retweets probably blocking many Shenmue dedicated twitter accounts in the process as I retweeted.. This person also blasted PlanetSide 2 despite being an ardent fan of BattleField.. for all it's similarities he said it was the worst game he wasted download on.. lol. People are set in their likes and dislikes. Their biases and their allegiances.

Fundamentally, Shenmue is not a game people can just jump into and understand. You need to let Shenmue into your mind. Shenmue is not so much a game, but a philosophy or more appropriately, Shenmue-do　莎木道, the path of Shenmue. A way of understanding your world through Shenmue. For us who have experienced Shenmue, it's something profound.

Can we really expect marketing to communicate this to this generation of gamers, especially the likes of Kevin VanOrd and Jim Sterling who hold a lot of sway in public opinion of today's gamers? I'm not so sure. These two in particular are quite jaded by experience. Nor should Shenmue try to cater towards these people, because it wouldn't be true to the fans or itself.

Don't expect Shenmue 3 to be a critical success, at best it will be begrudgingly acknowledged as a worthy sequel of Shenmue series that maintains a faithful continuation. At worst, it will be lambasted as yet another hokey ill-conceived, out dated, game by a Japanese game designer who's past his prime and out of touch with what gamers like in today's generation. Just don't get your hopes up.

If it's more of the same as Shenmue 2, you know I don't care what other people think. I know I will love it.

This may be a controversial opinion, but I think Shenmue and Shenmue II should be remade/rebooted so that it could have better execution, revised writing, expanded gameplay/extra content, and, most importantly, relevance for new generations and players that never played the old ones and would appreciate Shenmue III more if they were able to play the first 2 as games up to current day standards.

For sure the dub needs to be redone.

[shenmue852]

it's not a tree that exists in real life. in the game, it's a tree that bears sedge flowers.

yeah, i know its a fictional tree, i just wondered why they chose the sedge kanji. if the flower is supposed to resemble the plant 'sedge' then this would explain it (which is what i initially thought). but when you actually look at the shenmue tree intro video the flowers don't really look anything like sedge. never mind just my curiosity - a fictional tree can be called anything - it doesn't have to bear any resemblance to the thing its named after.
https://youtu.be/UYrtW7lD0cQ?t=3m4s

Seems there are quite a few different looking types of sedge flowers, though none look like the flowers in the game.

I think the simplest answer is most likely- they liked the sound of "Shenmue" in Japanese, and it happens to mean Sedge tree, but it was chosen mainly because they liked how it sounded and when it came time to design the tree, they just decided to put pretty flowers on it because there's no such thing as a "sedge tree" anyway.

They don't always go for 100% accuracy with everything in Shenmue. The four wude are mixed from many different sources, i.e Yi is from confucianism, and although those concepts would apply in any martial art, they aren't formatted as those 4 particular wude, every style has its own philosophy.