Is Shenmue IV a possible reality at this point?

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Is Shenmue IV a possible reality at this point?

Postby Telekill » Sat Jan 02, 2016 4:48 pm

Hello all,

We all have our stories of how we got the news that Shenmue III is in fact happening. All of us cheered as Yu Suzuki took the stage this last E3. Many on here participated in the Kickstarter and/or Paypal fund raisers. With the $6.5 million stretch goal finally having been met near the end of 2015 and YS Net already hard at work on continuing the Shenmue legacy, it's merely a matter of waiting until it is completed in a couple years for us to continue Ryo's story.

Now for the question given in my subject line of this thread. With all of the above happening, and that I've seen some of you post articles that the plan for Suzuki at this point with the Shenmue series is to have Shenmue IV be the final installment (thank God), which obviously could change with time; what is the real world expectation that we should have that Shenmue IV will actually happen?

Obviously there is a lot to consider, such as how well Shenmue III sells, that will determine if Suzuki gets to finish his legacy of Shenmue. It seems to me that shortly after Shenmue III is released would be the best time to start up Shenmue IV and complete the series. Any profits from the third game could go to start the funding for Shenmue IV and I'm sure that all of us would be willing to support the game with another Kickstarter or Paypal fundraiser; especially if it was the ending to the series.

Why should YS Net start on Shenmue IV so quickly?

1. Shenmue will still be fresh in the minds of gamers.
2. Assuming Sega gets off their butt and announces an HD remaster of the first two, there is the potential to have the entire series on PS4/PC. That would personally lock PS4 as my favorite system of all time.
3. Just get it done. Complete this long wait for all the fans.

As it stands, unless one imported or pirated Shenmue II on Dreamcast, then every Shenmue game to date will have been on a separate console in N. America. First on Dreamcast, Second on Xbox, Third on PS4/PC. Wouldn't it be nice to play the entire series from start to finish without hooking up other systems?

So fellow Shenmue fans... what are your thoughts on this? Does it make sense to expect the fourth and potentially final installment in the series to start production for PS4/PC in 2018, maybe a 2020 release, or is that expecting too much at this juncture? Don't get me wrong, I'm very appreciative that Shenmue III is being created, but I really want an end so I can see Ryo finally get the revenge he seeks for his father's death.
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Re: Is Shenmue IV a possible reality at this point?

Postby KidMarine » Sat Jan 02, 2016 5:02 pm

Cedric said his goal for Shenmue 3 was to sell 1 million copies. I assume that's the kind of number it needs to achieve to get a Shenmue 4.
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Re: Is Shenmue IV a possible reality at this point?

Postby SMDzero » Sat Jan 02, 2016 5:14 pm

KidMarine wrote: Cederic said his goal for Shenmue 3 was to sell 1 million copies. I assume that's the kind of number it needs to achieve to get a Shenmue 4.



If all 70,000 backers commit to buying 15 copies of Shenmue 3 each (to give to friends and family) then we will hit the 1M sales figure and ensure Shenmue 4!

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Re: Is Shenmue IV a possible reality at this point?

Postby Telekill » Sat Jan 02, 2016 5:32 pm

KidMarine wrote: Cederic said his goal for Shenmue 3 was to sell 1 million copies. I assume that's the kind of number it needs to achieve to get a Shenmue 4.


That's what I don't get. I think 1 million copies sold for Shenmue may be asking a bit much. I hope it's not, but gamers these days are a fickle crowd and we have to remember that many of today's gamers never played the first two games. This is why I personally believe it's crucial for Sega to release an HD remaster of the first two games on PS4/PC. Without getting invested in the first two games, I'm not sure people will be willing to invest in the third. Sure, there will be the "story so far" short movies included but that's not really enough for people to get invested I don't think.

Then we have to wonder, is Shenmue III going to be a full $60 retail release or a $30 download? Some number crunching...

500,000 copies sold at $30 each is around $15 million.
1 million copies sold at $60 each is obviously around $60 million.

I expect Shenmue III sales figures to land somewhere between the two of those meaning that it needs to make back the difference of it's total development cost minus the $6.5 million in crowd funding. Yu Suzuki won't release how much his financial backing is or who is supplying it. I can respect that, but it makes guessing how much Shenmue III actually needs to sell to get the sequel (and hopefully ending) quite a bit more difficult to judge.
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Re: Is Shenmue IV a possible reality at this point?

Postby Kiske » Sat Jan 02, 2016 5:35 pm

SMDzero wrote:
KidMarine wrote: Cederic said his goal for Shenmue 3 was to sell 1 million copies. I assume that's the kind of number it needs to achieve to get a Shenmue 4.



If all 70,000 backers commit to buying 15 copies of Shenmue 3 each (to give to friends and family) then we will hit the 1M sales figure and ensure Shenmue 4!


You mean if all 70'000 backers spend around 750$ on top of what already spent to support Shenmue3 development?

How much Champagne did you drink during the holidays? :roll: :lol:
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Re: Is Shenmue IV a possible reality at this point?

Postby KidMarine » Sat Jan 02, 2016 6:13 pm

Telekill wrote:Then we have to wonder, is Shenmue III going to be a full $60 retail release or a $30 download? Some number crunching...

500,000 copies sold at $30 each is around $15 million.
1 million copies sold at $60 each is obviously around $60 million.


It's definitely going to be a full on physical release. Cedric confirmed that during a stream and they're offering $60 for a physical PS4 copy on the PayPal page.

Given that there are 30 million PS4 owners right now, and two years to go, I don't think 1 million sales is out of the question. If only a small percentage of PS4 owners are curious enough to buy a copy then that's a million sales. Not to mention how many Steam users there are out there (although that's purely digital and will presumably be cheaper).

Kiske wrote: You mean if all 70'000 backers spend around 750$ on top of what already spent to support Shenmue3 development?

How much Champagne did you drink during the holidays? :roll: :lol:


I'm hardly rich but I could probably put $750 away over the course of two years if I had to. I'd probably spend that much on coffee on my way to work. Little things add up.

Not that I'm saying any fans should buy 15 copies, we've absolutely done our part. But I'll probably be putting aside money to buy multiple copies when it comes out. Caffeine is supposed to be bad for you anyway.

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Re: Is Shenmue IV a possible reality at this point?

Postby Kiske » Sat Jan 02, 2016 7:15 pm

Well, I admire your dedication to Shenmue and your 2016 good resolution of getting rid of caffeine :mrgreen: but my point is that I really hope Shenmue IV will be released someday because of the commercial success of episode 3 and hopefully remasters of 1 & 2, instead of the hardcore fanbase making miracles again and again.

With the rebirth of the Serie during 2015 E3 and the media exposition since then, I think it's the good time for Shenmue (and Yu Suzuki) to get the recognition he deserves from the "gaming world". If things don't work out this time... then I'm afraid there is a significant possibility we won't see the end of the saga.

That said, I would support every Kickstarter aimed to help development of the forthcoming episodes.

By the way... #SaveShenmueHD Tweetathon is round the corner .That's something we fans, can do to help Shenmue's fate.

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Re: Is Shenmue IV a possible reality at this point?

Postby Verisimilitude » Sat Jan 02, 2016 9:24 pm

First and foremost, I think you need an HD Remaster Collection for Shenmue 1 and 2 to be released prior to Shenmue III. The more exposure the better for the series and allowing people who may not have played it before to understand the narrative rather than jumping in at a point and feeling less connected with it.

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Re: Is Shenmue IV a possible reality at this point?

Postby VukBZ2005 » Sat Jan 02, 2016 10:34 pm

Telekill wrote:That's what I don't get. I think 1 million copies sold for Shenmue may be asking a bit much. I hope it's not, but gamers these days are a fickle crowd and we have to remember that many of today's gamers never played the first two games. This is why I personally believe it's crucial for Sega to release an HD remaster of the first two games on PS4/PC. Without getting invested in the first two games, I'm not sure people will be willing to invest in the third. Sure, there will be the "story so far" short movies included but that's not really enough for people to get invested I don't think.


First, I agree that it is important for Sega to either release HD remasters of the first two games or give Ys Net the right to do so. As we all know, many did not play either because of them being too young or not having a Dreamcast when they were on the market. Thus, they have to be acclimated to the series properly.

Second, I do not think one million copies getting sold is impossible. It will depend on how well the PS4 version of it is marketed by Sony in the days and weeks after release. It will also depend on how well the community counters those who clearly have an agenda against it for whatever reason. Because KS was the means of obtaining funds, a lot of those with hostility towards that jumped on the Anti-Shenmue bandwagon quickly.

Also, since the late 2000's, there has been this trend amongst those who consider themselves gamers to directly attack Shenmue with nonsense like, "get over it, it's dead," "weeaboo," etc. So, when news broke of Shenmue III coming out, they got mad and attempted to sabotage the KS. Since its success, their anger has tremendously increased, so I believe they will try to now attempt to sabotage sales with false information. That is why the community has to get ready for that now.

Third, it is coming out in both physical and digital forms, so I am not too worried so far.
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Re: Is Shenmue IV a possible reality at this point?

Postby Spaghetti » Sun Jan 03, 2016 12:33 am

It was more possible than before Shenmue 3 got kickstarted, that's for sure.

Considering the original Shenmue sold over a million on the Dreamcast when it was only around 6 million units globally (or less), I'm not worried about Shenmue 3 selling over a million between PS4 and PC.

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Re: Is Shenmue IV a possible reality at this point?

Postby drunkensailor » Sun Jan 03, 2016 4:29 am

KidMarine wrote: Cedric said his goal for Shenmue 3 was to sell 1 million copies. I assume that's the kind of number it needs to achieve to get a Shenmue 4.

that's considerably less than shenmue 1. oh the irony of time
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Re: Is Shenmue IV a possible reality at this point?

Postby drunkensailor » Sun Jan 03, 2016 4:33 am

Spaghetti wrote: It was more possible than before Shenmue 3 got kickstarted, that's for sure.

Considering the original Shenmue sold over a million on the Dreamcast when it was only around 6 million units globally (or less), I'm not worried about Shenmue 3 selling over a million between PS4 and PC.

this and if it sells less than it's a disapointment, with or without the hd releases. it doesn't matter. 1 million isn't much
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Re: Is Shenmue IV a possible reality at this point?

Postby Spaghetti » Sun Jan 03, 2016 5:05 am

drunkensailor wrote:
Spaghetti wrote: It was more possible than before Shenmue 3 got kickstarted, that's for sure.

Considering the original Shenmue sold over a million on the Dreamcast when it was only around 6 million units globally (or less), I'm not worried about Shenmue 3 selling over a million between PS4 and PC.

this and if it sells less than it's a disapointment, with or without the hd releases. it doesn't matter. 1 million isn't much

Yeah, 1 million isn't going to be hard at all. It'll likely get featured at around two or three Sony pressers before release so it'll have sufficient exposure, and hopefully it'll be marked appropriately as an alternative experience to big, loud, featureless open world games.

I feel the last point will be crucially important, as it seems a lot of gamers are looking for something different in their open world games these days. Size and scope aren't really a selling point anymore. Gamers are looking for a detailed, lived-in world, which Shenmue excels at.

I'm slightly worried word of mouth is going to kill Shenmue 3's momentum. I've more or less resigned myself to thinking certain outlets will either ignore or just trash the game without much justified reason, based on how Shenmue has been treated as a media punching bag for so, so long even before the Kickstarter. We'll see.

I think when people actually play a modern Shenmue a lot of the complaints about the old games will be solved simply through current production values being to a higher standard than they were in 99. The FREE controls will be better, the voice acting and translation should be better, and Shenmue 3 will likely carry on the lessons Shenmue II learned from the original game, such as giving the player better direction and giving them more to do in the immediate opening hours before then letting the player dictate their own pace. QTEs might get pulled up on by reviewers and players, but Yu has made comments about changing them somehow, so we'll see.

Thinking about it realistically, what are the major complaints about Shenmue besides the pace, the voice acting, and the tank controls?
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Re: Is Shenmue IV a possible reality at this point?

Postby Let's Get Sweaty » Sun Jan 03, 2016 5:53 am

As many of you have brought up the need for HD releases of 1 & 2 for sales of 3 to warrant 4 (now there's a sentence), then as Kiske says, don't forget to participate in today's Tweetathon.

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Re: Is Shenmue IV a possible reality at this point?

Postby reptile » Sun Jan 03, 2016 6:18 am

Personally I think that Shenmue IV will definitely come but soon? No. It is because it will take time for production and it simply can not be rushed. Do you think Yu Suzuki will want to go straight to the next game? I believe that he will most likely enjoy the release of his game and take a long break after all the hard work he has put in mind his age.

The fans have already spoken out, Shenmue is appealing and we need the story to conclude as fans have waited too long, Shenmue IV will come, in time.

I think a kickstarter for Shenmue IV would blow other gamer's minds and it will be very interesting to watch but no, kickstarter aside as I don't see that happening either.
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