After thinking about this for a while and following the "progress" of shenmue since the second i finished shenmue 2, i am now starting to believe the following:
I think that within the next 2 years episodic gaming will start to take off in a more significant way than it has managed to do so far. Another game that i love, Dreamfall: the longest journey, is similary structured in chapters like shenmue is and that game's future has already been announced in an episodic format. The problem is that no one has really pioneered the right way to do episodic gaming yet (im sure some sam and max fans, etc would disagree but those dont have the appeal of a full big name game release).
The mean reason i think we might see shenmue eventually take this route is because it is easily divisible into chapters, releasing one chapter at a time makes it possible for sega to retest the waters without having to pour an insane amount of money into a full release, and honestly i think if yu suzuki had even the tinniest soul and truely believed shenmue has no future he wouldve released the story in some way to his clearly die hard fans.
The economy sucks so we wont see anything for a while. Im predicting announcement by 2013.
Also i think our tone on the potential of a shenmue continuation needs to change. It needs to be clear that while any one of us would probably take a sega saturn version of shenmue 3 if such a thing existed, this franchise needs to be treated like something that can still make sega money, not just something to satisfy an insanely loyal fanbase. I think most of us hopefully agree no one is gonna watch shenmue 1 and 2 the movie and feel the same way about shenmue 3 as any of us would. They have to either release 1, wait a while, release 2, and then give us a next gen shenmue 3 in chapters (1 and 2 would be online probably on xbox live arcade). OR start from the beginning and simply release Shenmue: Chapter 1 as a new game with next gen prowess and go from there.
Until then keep on helping other people discover the series. At least 3 of my friends are die hard shenmue fans because i lent them my dreamcast and shenmue just to play it.
Also i hope sega isnt seriously considering the Wii. It may have the install base but the Wii is where 3rd party goes to die. The one thing 360 has going for it more than anything else is it's owners buy games like crazy. The attach rate for it is unbelievable and its great to see microsoft make a system where a truly good game generally sells well.