Shenmue 3 sales & franchise future

[fittersau]

Maybe, that's why Suzuki said, if we obtain $10 million in the kickstarter, he can realise his true open world vision for Shenmue III because Sony & Shibuya would either double the kickstarter fund 2x$10m = $20 million. So if going by that premise if Sony & Shibuya double the Kickstarter, we get $12.6 million, which is still $7.4 million short of the full $20 million budget.

Had some more thoughts on the money side.

So this amount of doubling whatever the KS value was is the lowest contribution S&S could put in. So how many Shenmue III units do they need to sell?

If they happen to release the game for a modest $40, they will need to sell 157,500 copies in addition to the 69,000 already sold through Kickstarter, to break even. So essentially 2.2 times the number of people who kickstatered the game.

But still 973,500 short of the number of units sold with Shenmue I.

[Himuro]

This will be an easy 100k. What we want is at least 500k or 1 million at LEAST.

I disagree with whoever said it's impossible to gain a new audience with a third game. Street Fighter got popular with II. Final Fantasy hit worldwide popularity with SEVEN. The Witcher with three.

If Sony markets it in the way Shenmue SHOULD be marketed, allows Suzuki to do a demo ON STAGE at E3, this will sell at least 1 million worldwide. Count on it.

[Sh3ppy]

This will be an easy 100k. What we want is at least 500k or 1 million at LEAST.

I disagree with whoever said it's impossible to gain a new audience with a third game. Street Fighter got popular with II. Final Fantasy hit worldwide popularity with SEVEN. The Witcher with three.

If Sony markets it in the way Shenmue SHOULD be marketed, allows Suzuki to do a demo ON STAGE at E3, this will sell at least 1 million worldwide. Count on it.

I agree this would go a long way towards increasing sales & really making a difference. Would be surprised if it wasn't on the cards.

[belinho]

Well…we were all young Shenmue players at one point, so I don’t think age will necessarily play a huge factor in this case. However, I definitely agree with you on Shenmue remaining a niche franchise that won’t appeal to the masses, for a million different reasons.

I wasn't directly referring to the age of the players, more to the idea that people nowadays are more "spoiled" with numerous gameplay crutches that weren't back in the day. I think both older and newer generations of players take some mechanics for granted, i just take it that the newer ones will be more dismissive of games that have that old school vibe.

About the series being niche, was it really? I'm actually asking. I know Shenmue sold around 1M on the Dreamcast. I know it had all the hype surrounding it, but given the Dreamcast install base, can it be considered niche?
About Shenmue 2 i really don't know the numbers, i think i read it sold about 0.5M in NA on Xbox, so that still leaves EU and JP out. Or is it 0.5M worldwide?
And what about other high profile games at the time? How many did they sell?

Maybe, that's why Suzuki said, if we obtain $10 million in the kickstarter, he can realise his true open world vision for Shenmue III because Sony & Shibuya would either double the kickstarter fund 2x$10m = $20 million. So if going by that premise if Sony & Shibuya double the Kickstarter, we get $12.6 million, which is still $7.4 million short of the full $20 million budget.

What about this doubling thing? Is it really a thing, or just people saying stuff? I guess Yu nor Cedric ever said anything about possible investors doubling the Kickstarter figure, but is it really expectable? Has it ever happened?

[fittersau]

What about this doubling thing? Is it really a thing, or just people saying stuff? I guess Yu nor Cedric ever said anything about possible investors doubling the Kickstarter figure, but is it really expectable? Has it ever happened?

No, it's hypothetical based on 10% to "kickstart" a game, see my previous post..

With Bloodstained, correct me if I'm wrong, Igarashi asked for $500,000 as a proof of concept of fan's desire for a Castlevania type game. They said it was 10% of what they needed, therefore the real cost is $500,000 x 10 = $5,000,000. They got $5,500,000 or there abouts. So they got enough to make a side scroller.

With Shenmue if we apply the same logic that the original goal was $2,000,000 and that represents 10% again, therefore the real cost would be $2,000,000 x 10 = $20,000,000.

Sony and Shibuya nor Ys Net have not said anything about real funding requirements nor their contributions or how money will be distributed except that neither Sony nor Shibuya will receive any Kickstarter contributions.

In regards to that, it can't be true because PS4 physical copies will need require payment to Sony somehow, also any game sold on PSN Sony takes a cut any sales. So it's just creative accounting to appease the people who are scared we are doing a pre-order instead of a kickstart.

[Sh3ppy]

What about this doubling thing? Is it really a thing, or just people saying stuff? I guess Yu nor Cedric ever said anything about possible investors doubling the Kickstarter figure, but is it really expectable? Has it ever happened?

No, it's hypothetical based on 10% to "kickstart" a game, see my previous post..

With Bloodstained, correct me if I'm wrong, Igarashi asked for $500,000 as a proof of concept of fan's desire for a Castlevania type game. They said it was 10% of what they needed, therefore the real cost is $500,000 x 10 = $5,000,000. They got $5,500,000 or there abouts. So they got enough to make a side scroller.

With Shenmue if we apply the same logic that the original goal was $2,000,000 and that represents 10% again, therefore the real cost would be $2,000,000 x 10 = $20,000,000.

Sony and Shibuya nor Ys Net have not said anything about real funding requirements nor their contributions or how money will be distributed except that neither Sony nor Shibuya will receive any Kickstarter contributions.

In regards to that, it can't be true because PS4 physical copies will need require payment to Sony somehow, also any game sold on PSN Sony takes a cut any sales. So it's just creative accounting to appease the people who are scared we are doing a pre-order instead of a kickstart.

Any money Sony makes through games sold on PSN won't be coming out of the Kickstarter contributions so I'm confused as to how that constitutes creative accounting.

Regarding Sony 'requiring payment somehow' for physical PS4 copies, during one of the Q&A's a pie chart was shown illustrating approximately what % of the KS pledges is going on rewards (as well as other expenditure not counting development), so it seems pretty out in the open how the funds are being allocated, kickstarter-wise.

[fittersau]

Any money Sony makes through games sold on PSN won't be coming out of the Kickstarter contributions so I'm confused as to how that constitutes creative accounting.

Maybe, maybe not. I'd be surprised if absolutely nothing went to PSN on the $29 PSN digital copy. There were 26,238 contributors for the $29 tier. Assuming half of those are PSN requests, that's 13,119 PSN digital copies pre sold, "going to the kickstarter development". This could mean that Sony in their good will said, no worries Ys Net, take it all for your development budget, for example Sony could say, for every 13,119 kickstarter copies of Shenmue III downloaded on PSN, we will not charge you a fee to use the PSN service. However, for every subsequent sale 13,120+ onwards, we will charge our usual 10% say, = $2.90 per download. These figures and percentages are all made up as I don't know the real values, but this could be the case as according to the information from Ys Net.

However, let's assume the normal charge isn't 10% but really 5%, there's your creative accounting, Sony just get paid later. No big deal. This is all speculative.

I'm trying to understand how both Sony & Shibuya benefit and can get their investments back. Sony wouldn't back Shenmue III out of the goodness their heart, nor would Shibuya no matter how much a fan Cedric is as well, a business has to pay it's way. Please don't misunderstand as if I'm trying to push any idiotic mainstream gaming website agenda. They get up my nose, especially that damned K*taku.

This will be an easy 100k. What we want is at least 500k or 1 million at LEAST. ... If Sony markets it in the way Shenmue SHOULD be marketed, allows Suzuki to do a demo ON STAGE at E3, this will sell at least 1 million worldwide. Count on it.

You know what, I really hope this is true. It would be poetic justice that the same marketing muscle that contributed to the downfall of the Dreamcast and subsequently Shenmue is the same marketing muscle that is now saving Shenmue. I still feel very sad that the Dreamcast died because of the ridiculous hype of the PS2, but if the PS4 can save Shenmue, I would say all is forgiven.

[Hyo Razuki]

Let's not kid ourselves here: Sales will have a massive impact on Shenmue's future. If S3 doesn't sell well enough, chances are we may never see the conclusion of the story, not even through another Kickstarter for S4. If S3 does poorly, Sony won't support S4.

Therefor I think it is crucial that Sony helps out the game with good marketing and also S1 and 2 HD on PS4 and PC would help a lot.

Also Cedric said, he can't immagine another Kickstarter for S4 and Yu said, if the fans didn't like S3, he would not make 4. And how will Yu know if people like the game or not? Sales is the answer and sales is what counts at the end of the day.

[elfshadowreaper]

What puts Shenmue 4 in a good position is that everything earned from the sale of Shenmue 3 should be profit seeing as how we funded the development. So at the beginning of development they're already operating in the black. Shenmue 1 and 2 never saw anything but red.

[kida]

Valkyria Chronicles has sold almost 500k copies on steam despite being a years old port of a PS3 game.

Shenmue 3 will do 1 million easily.

[Hyo Razuki]

What puts Shenmue 4 in a good position is that everything earned from the sale of Shenmue 3 should be profit seeing as how we funded the development. So at the beginning of development they're already operating in the black. Shenmue 1 and 2 never saw anything but red.

I assume you are talking about Ys Net now. While I hope you are correct, we cannot be sure you are. The truth is, we don't know where Ys Net's break even point lies. Sony and the other "private investors" are gonna want to make some profit from this project. Right now, we don't know how much exactly Sony will put into their marketing and publishing support for S3 but they are gonna want to see their money back and on top of that make a profit. Also, Sega will probably get their share of the revenue. While it was really generous of Sega to give Yu the IP - contrary to Capcom with Mega Man and Konami with Castlevania - they are not a charity and probably saw this as the best way to still make some money off the Shenmue IP.

I trust Ys Net on the larger part of development cost for the game being funded through the KS but we cannot be sure when exactly they will hit the black digits with this.

S3 will better sell enough untis, or else.

[punkmanced]

This will be an easy 100k. What we want is at least 500k or 1 million at LEAST.

I disagree with whoever said it's impossible to gain a new audience with a third game. Street Fighter got popular with II. Final Fantasy hit worldwide popularity with SEVEN. The Witcher with three.

If Sony markets it in the way Shenmue SHOULD be marketed, allows Suzuki to do a demo ON STAGE at E3, this will sell at least 1 million worldwide. Count on it

Shenmue 3 fits none of those examples.
All of the games you mention are self-contained adventures; additionally, SF2 and FF7 were groundbreaking moments in gaming, revolutionizing their respective genres at different points in time, whereas the Witcher franchise accrued popularity for years prior to part 3’s release (having sold a combined 8 million copies of its first two installments to date). We could go on, but you get the gist: we’re pretty far from Shenmue 3 on all fronts.

I agree that Shenmue 3’s marketing (which includes successful public showcases; E3; etc) will either make or break its chances at success; however, I doubt a series as cohesive as this one, with its linear/ interconnected story, will be able to move the max. number of units possible simply “as is”. Branching out beyond the established fanbase is indeed a necessity, but one which has to include HD collections (or “motion picture”-type pack-ins) to help attract new fans and help them acclimate…something which, for whatever reason, doesn’t exactly seem obvious to Suzuki & co at this point.

I'm trying to understand how both Sony & Shibuya benefit and can get their investments back. Sony wouldn't back Shenmue III out of the goodness their heart, nor would Shibuya no matter how much a fan Cedric is as well, a business has to pay it's way

Those crafty SOBs are being awfully coy about their exact role, aren’t they?
Granted, I don’t think it’s as complicated as we’ve been led to believe (the initial announcement fiasco just led to some confusing stories). Personally, I see Sony as just another investor in the project; nothing more, nothing less. I imagine they’ll be getting [timed?] console exclusivity, and a cut of the PSN/ physical game sales in return, depending on their level of involvement. Only thing we know for sure: they’re not getting anything from the KS fund; Biscay’s confirmed it.

For what it’s worth, I like your “double the KS” theory.

What puts Shenmue 4 in a good position is that everything earned from the sale of Shenmue 3 should be profit seeing as how we funded the development. So at the beginning of development they're already operating in the black. Shenmue 1 and 2 never saw anything but red.

In regards to our own contributions, yes; with that said, keep in mind that there should be plenty of “other” (ie non-KS) investors who will be seeking a return on their investment. In other words, the game will need to sell ___copies before making a profit.

Also Cedric said, he can't immagine another Kickstarter for S4 and Yu said, if the fans didn't like S3, he would not make 4. And how will Yu know if people like the game or not? Sales is the answer and sales is what counts at the end of the day.

Agreed, and I’d be very curious to know their cutoff point in making such a decision: what will they consider “successful” enough for Shenmue 4? They should have that estimate as soon as part 3’s final budget is set in stone.

Anyway, the problem with Shenmue has never been one of quality. It’s always been [sh*tty] marketing. Always…and…let’s face it, judging by some of the “questionable” decision-making we’ve witnessed so far during the KS campaign, we’re not exactly out of the woods yet. I’m certainly not giving up (no matter what happens), but I want the Shenmue marketing team to get serious at some point, and…you know… actually come up with a multi-faceted plan to sell millions of copies of the damn game. I don’t mean to sound bleak, but this essentially is our last chance, as Suzuki’s comments only seem to confirm. The burden isn’t on us, the Shenmue community, to buy the game (…we will... all __ thousand of us), it’s on them to actually sell it to an expanded audience.

[Himuro]

After 14 years, you don't think yu and co don't have ability to make III feel easier for newcomers to come into? It's actually not that hard. Include a digest movie that covers both 1 and 2 at the beginning, and then continue from there. People have been buying Witcher 3 despite the fact it's an ongoing series as well.

[Dragon St.]

But that didn't work for Shenmue II on Xbox. I've never played any Witcher game, but from what I understand is that there are so many side quests to make it interesting even if you don't follow the main story. While Shenmue is all about the main story...

[Yokosuka]

Sidequests in Shenmue are supposed to be the mini-games but the Yakuza and GTA have set the standard very high.