Shenmue Dojo

As of right now, we know with some certainty that Shenmue III won't end the series, and that we'll likely see its conclusion in a fourth game. In a typical trilogy, the second installment is when the protagonist(s) is at their lowest point, aka- when all of the "bad stuff" happens. Two perfect examples of this are Star Wars: The Empire Strikes Back and The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers. In both of these scenarios, even the title has a bad connotation. Within these particular films, the main characters reach their lowest points, whether it be desperation, depression, fear, anger, etc. Obviously this didn't happen in Shenmue II, so I expect to see it in III.

What are your predictions? Any more deaths? An attitude change from Ryo? A betrayal? I imagine Ryo will have a near-death experience as a result of the Chi You Men, similar to Luke Skywalker's encounter with Darth Vader.

(either it's all or nothing. no such thing as partial certainty.)
good question.
honestly, if the team hold true to the humanity and realistic emulation to the game, ryo's in for a world of shit.
then again, he's been relatively stoic so far.
maybe he's already at his lowest (mentally speaking) and it's yet to manifest itself.
how that happens, anybodys guess.
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the tech was much older, only so many dimensions to the characters, not so much so now, the sky is the limit.
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if the world encounter aspect is to be added to in general, i can see some event occurring that tips him over the edge, like some random public white night getting it wrong/sticking beaks into his biz, or a copper/police official abusing his arbitrary authority. (for example)
could be that he gets news from back home, and it isn't as cosy as he maybe expecting. (hope is one of mans greatest evils, it enslaves on false promises/premise and deals devastating blows to ids and egos when they had nothing left to lose in the first place.)
ryo is trying to get to the bottom of it all, and put an end to the bastard that caused his loved ones to suffer...and for what?
a trinket, a plate made of jade?
oh yeah, lan-di's gonna get it alright.
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like any long drawn out story that does a good job emulating 'life' ryo will undoubtedly have his own version of 'pick me ups' by way of stuff going right for him/quick resolve with minimal collateral damage.
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i suppose he could end up a substance abuser...for a bit?
all to play for.
as for predictions on my side, couldn't really say what his highs and lows will be, but they will be a rollercoaster ride/sinewave.

First off I think Ryo himself was already at his lowest, during Shenmue 2, he snammed at Xuiying atleast twice, and after his bag was stolen, and he found the thugs, I'm pretty sure he wouldn't killed the one guy, if Wrong didn't basically Bribe Ryo.


As for story arcs: Yu mentions 5 possibilities, but Yu can't count lol j/k, to him 5 may = 10, however lets assume 5 actually = 5 shall we, and that each one of the 5, don't shoot off into multiple others them selves.

I Think 3 of the possible arcs will involve each of the 3 taking lead, while playing nice(aka Ryo trying to get Shenhua to fall in love with him so to say, and Ren not acting like a self serving greedy bastard).

I think the remaining 2 possibilities will involve being bad to Shenhua, getting her to not trust/cooperate with Ryo, and turning Ren into a complete backstabbing jerk, so he tries getting the riches by "any" means, that fool believes exists(Ren being completely ignorant in the matter at hand, might actually try stealing the Mirror from Ryo, and selling the Phoenix Mirror to Lan Di for all we know, remember Ren doesn't know jack about all of this, and no way is Ryo or Shenhua going to tell him what to Mirrors really lead to)

I don't think that Yu wrote the story thinking about placing good and bad happenings in mind; at least not in an artificial and "marketed" way. So, I think that if something really bad occurs in the story, it will be really shocking, and really surprising.

About preditions... I recall Phantasy Star II. If I remember correctly, that slide from GDC which shows ilustrations for the 11 chapters didn't include Shenhua in the last ones...

EDIT: my bad, she is in the last one. So, no predictions by me, at all!!

I don't think Shenmue will have anything like this. If anything, I expect the ending to the series to be bitter sweet, which is par for the course for the series at this point (Ryo leaving Yokosuka with the aid of family, while at the same time disappointing them and letting down Ine-San in particular while pursuing his own admittedly selfish desires in I, and finding Shenhua's father is probably dead while at the same time embarking on a journey of destiny fulfillment in II). As we saw in Shenmue II, Ryo goes through a sort of change near the end. As if he learned a thing or two from his journey with Xiuying, Jianmin and co., he's implementing softness and polishing his mind with tai chi surrounded by nature in all its glory. I expect between Shenhua and his relationship, for Ryo's mind to be opened, and considering different viewpoints for the better, and to integrate that softness into his quest. I fully expect Ryo to reconsider revenge in III. He may resolve not to kill Lan Di like he set out, but still maybe seek answers and fulfill his promises to Shenhua.

If anything, Shenmue II is already the moment you speak of. Things barely work out for Ryo in that game. In 1, he's the local kid who kicks everyone's ass. In II, not everything goes well for him. He's outclassed everywhere he goes, he has to run away from Dou Niu on at least three different occasions. He loses, a lot. He ends up going to extremes as he's swallowed by a city of decay, almost hinting at a similar transformation happening to Ryo's own inner spirit. The kid climbs a giant building with planks in it to find a single person. Ryo has gone beyond the point of revenge at that point and has fallen into full on obsession.

Shenmue II IS Ryo's lowest point.

It's just that it also hints majorly at a massive positive transformation he goes through by games end when he meets Shenhua and gives hope of redemption.

If I were to surmise, I would say each game represent a specific emotion.

1 - depression/acceptance of his fathers murder
2 - anger
3 - calm and peace

The locations in each game reinforce that idea. In I, it rains a lot, giving a depressing mood. The snow doesn't help either.
II has a lot of decayed and gritty places, and a giant chunk of the game is about Ryo losing his calm and being driven to anger. Guilin is a peaceful place surrounded by nature, indicating peace.