It annoys me when people call Shenmue a flop

[King John Blaze]

Whenever there is a list of biggest gaming flops, even those outside of just financial performance, Shenmue comes up all the time. People always forget to ,emotion that both games sold over a million copies on the Dreamcast alone and if it was released on any other console, especially now, it would be a massive success. Lazy and ignorant journalism trying to destroy a games legacy.

[ianpm31]

As an end result, probably from a financial standpoint but that was only because the DC was a failure. Shenmue 1 sold 1.3 million on a 10 million install base. When you look at the attach rate of over 10% I would say that is pretty damn good. Same issue with Shenmue 2 on DC because that was around the end of it's life. Then of course porting over to Xbox was a horrible decision for obvious reasons especially when it was clear as day that you actually have a base to sell to on the PS2. It's a combination of bad luck and horrible decision making from SEGA.

[JohnBlack]

Whenever there is a list of biggest gaming flops, even those outside of just financial performance, Shenmue comes up all the time. People always forget to ,emotion that both games sold over a million copies on the Dreamcast alone and if it was released on any other console, especially now, it would be a massive success. Lazy and ignorant journalism trying to destroy a games legacy.

What so offending about it being financial flop?

[punkmanced]

Shenmue was ahead of its time, and as such became a victim of circumstance.

With that said, the game had a reality-defying budget, was supposed to be a system seller, but, in the end, failed to attract 90% of all Dreamcast owners. Calling it a financial flop is reductive, but not unfounded.

[Spaghetti]

What so offending about it being financial flop?

Because it's used to talk down the series and future financial viability. It's a very surface level reading of the situation Shenmue was in.

The original game sold 1.2+ million copies on an install base of like 8/9 million consoles, which is an attach rate comparable to Skyrim on Xbox 360. Ultimately the problem was the Dreamcast not selling as well as it could/should have, and getting steamrolled in mindshare by the PS2 even before it was even out.

[MiTT3NZ]

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=51180&p=1160832&hilit=million#p1160832

I recall a number floating around here of sales figures for Shenmue 2X at about 300-400k, and the Wikipedia article puts it at 100k for the Dreamcast version. Also I remember the latter being comparatively cheap (or less expensive, at least) than most releases at the time.

Safe to say that Shenmue games didn't sell more than two million copies. That's quite good, especially for a perceived failure such as the Dreamcast.

As you say though, that's with a 40 million budget. Let's be generous and say 30% of every sale was going directly to SEGA (not AM2, Microsoft, covering advertising or publishing costs) and each game sold at £40 (though I definitely remember buying brand new DC games at £25)

That's £24 million. Converting that into USD around 2003 would've been roughly $40m. That would mean they broke even. Only they didn't, because the games cost $47m.

Either way you look at it, SEGA didn't make money out of Shenmue. Yes, it's a genuine shame, but that's reality.

I'm not sure why this is still a point of discussion. It took Illmatic a decade to go platinum, The Shawshank Redemption did pretty average at the pictures. Shenmue didn't do well financially. That fact will remain despite the number of people who bought it.

The sales figures say that it was a popular game, one that sold very well, but investment vs return wise it was dreadful.

Also saying that it would do well on any console is just being ignorant of trends. The early to mid nineties was all about platformers, then JRPGs, Action/Adventures, First Person Shooters, and now Western Open World.

PlayStation 4 is the platform that will see Shenmue III performing the best it possibly can due to the install base being more about Japanese content when compared to the Xbox One.

It can be successful, but you also have to consider the fact that the vast majority of those who want Shenmue III have already bought and paid for it. I've no doubt many will buy additional copies, but this speaks less about the game being a success in its own right and more towards the tenacity of the fans to ensure the franchise doesn't die again.

Short version: Until it begins making an actual profit it will continue be seen as a financial flop, but it is a very popular financial flop.

[adom11800]

I can see why you would be annoyed as it being known as a 'flop'. But don't worry as mentioned before Shawshank Redemption didn't do that well at the pictures but now it's considered the best film ever on IMDB and a massive hit.

If Shenmue 3 is a massive success and goes beyond how many copies they need to sell, how great would that be?
Reality might have other plans though...

[Spaghetti]

For what it's worth, III will be releasing into a world of 80+ million PS4s and however many potential consumers on PC.

Seems decent enough odds for a fighting chance at success.

[adom11800]

^Seems like you been doing your homework lol. Are there really that many PS4's? I'm guessing there was no way near as many Dreamcast consoles.

[Spaghetti]

^Seems like you been doing your homework lol. Are there really that many PS4's? I'm guessing there was no way near as many Dreamcast consoles.

Reports from last month say there are around 75 million PS4s worldwide, I figured that number will keep growing on the run up to III. Dreamcasts topped out at like... 9 million consoles sold I think.

Of course none of this guarantees how well III will do, but the hardware numbers are favourable at least. Niche games have done okay this gen and the AA market has seen a resurgence too. As market conditions go it probably couldn't be a much better time for Shenmue III to come along.

[mjq jazz bar]

I think conditions are favorable for a runaway success provided the game ends up at least above average. I’ve never seen so many Japanese niche games do as well as they have this generation. There’s also an unbelievable amount of hype for Shenmue 3.

[BigTuna]

I wonder about this sometimes. If SEGA and Microsoft were smart at the time. They should’ve ported the first Shenmue to the Xbox around the same time Shenmue 2 came out. Or just released them together. But instead they put out that Shenmue Movie... You didn’t really see that happen back then like you do now though. At least not commonly like today. I doubt it’d be considered a “failure” by anyone if they worked that deal out.

[Valascaziel]

It is worth noting that Kingdom Come didn't have a HUGE marketing push(it did have some) but even being a AA game from an upstart studio, it has had very good success in sales.

[Kiske]

I would be very curious to know the approximative numbers for Yakuza 0 and the soon to be released Yakuza 6.

Both in Japan and in the West.

[punkmanced]

^ Me too, considering how Sega is intent on fucking up Yakuza 6's release.
Seriously.