Future of Shenmue series after 2017

(Chapter 7 and beyond)

Future of Shenmue series after 2017

Postby Muscat » Tue Jul 21, 2015 7:09 am

Lately I have these questions in my mind and I would like your opinion on them:

1- How many copies does Shenmue 3 needs to sell to have Shenmue 4? Do you think Shenmue 3 will sell well?

2-If Shenmue 3 ended up like Shenmue 2 and wasn't commercially successful, would you support another Kickstarter campaign for Shenmue 4?
Muscat
Asia Travel Representative
Asia Travel Representative
 
Joined: May 2015

Re: Future of Shenmue series after 2017

Postby zema » Tue Jul 21, 2015 7:15 am

1- I don't know specific numbers, but i think it would need to sell enough for ysnet and sony to make profit.
2- Absolutely.
User avatar
zema
Funny Bear Burger Clerk
Funny Bear Burger Clerk
 
Joined: July 2015
PSN: zema7777
Nintendo FC: zema7777
Favorite title: Shenmue II
Currently playing: Witcher 3

Re: Future of Shenmue series after 2017

Postby Axm » Tue Jul 21, 2015 7:22 am

1. Ya it should sell decently even for a series of its age and I think even if Shenmue 1/2 HD dont come out. Ofcourse if they do come out then Shenmue 3 sales might turn out rather impressive.

2. Ya ofcourse. Where's the Shenmue 4 kickstarter? Sign me up and take my money now. Nothing but trust for Yu Suzuki and the team.

Axm has received a thanks from: Supa
User avatar
Axm
#SaveShenmueHD
News Poster
 
Joined: May 2003
Location: Fukuoka, Japan

Re: Future of Shenmue series after 2017

Postby shenmue852 » Tue Jul 21, 2015 7:22 am

It's really unclear, but it will probably sell enough to its own fans to recoup its investment, at least the initial 6 mil. Success beyond that is anybody's guess. Lots of people still don't get Shenmue and like to pick on it but there's more potential for it to find its audience than ever before.

Here's a scenario with math- Yakuza 4 sold 140k units in the US. That was a game with no English dub. PS exclusive.
So assuming that Shenmue has an equivalent or bigger fanbase (probably includes most of Yakuza's fanbase by default) in the US, and also reaches the PC market, expanding its potential sales. Now imagine sells only 100,000 copies at $60 each. That generates about enough revenue to break even, i.e YSNet has 6 million again after spending it on the game. Roughly. Slightly less, actually. And that's with 100k copies sold.

If it sells 200,000 copies at $60 each, it's will have reached profitability- they'll make back the 6 million and have almost another 6 mil.

But even Yakuza 4 sold only 630k copies in Japan.

So if I were to guess, I'd put it at slightly higher numbers, bolstered by PC sales and more exposure/hype because of the legendary wait and record kickstarter. That means, maybe 160-180k in the US. 200-300,000 in Japan (it is a Japanese game) and maybe 120k in EU. That puts 500,000 copies sold worldwide within reach, so maybe it makes 2 times the investment. If it sells as much as Yakuza 4 worldwide (930k) it's going to be extremely profitable, but Yakuza 4 had a much, much much bigger budget.

Either way, unless it actually loses money (sells under 200k worldwide) a fourth game isn't unlikely, but it's not 100% guaranteed either.


If the fans Shenmue III as much as I and II, they could do another fan Kickstarter in 3 or 4 years, and it'll probably raise enough.

So really the biggest factor is how good they make the new game- they were excused for various technical difficulties with the first games- the tank controls were an issue but not as much as the lack of fluidity in scene transitions and some really outdated looking dramatic cutscenes, so they've got some work cut out for them bringing the standards up from 1999 levels. Don't get me wrong, it was god tier for in engine gameplay back then and the mocap was never a problem, it was just some of the stuff would look ba if you weren't accounting for the fact that it's a 15 year old game, and they won't have that excuse with the new one.

I'd recommend they stick with a Japanese dub to avoid ruining it with bad localization- it's a very Asian game anyway, the dub never really fit and for IIx the dub makes the game unplayable. no offense to Corey Marshall.
Last edited by shenmue852 on Tue Jul 21, 2015 7:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
shenmue852
Man Mo Acolyte
Man Mo Acolyte
 
Joined: July 2015

Re: Future of Shenmue series after 2017

Postby Sonoshee » Tue Jul 21, 2015 7:25 am

I hope they take in to account the amount already pre-sold through the Kickstarter.
User avatar
Sonoshee
"After Burner...Great!"
"After Burner...Great!"
 
Joined: June 2015

Re: Future of Shenmue series after 2017

Postby Axm » Tue Jul 21, 2015 7:28 am

Sonoshee wrote:I hope they take in to account the amount already pre-sold through the Kickstarter.

Ya thats about 70,000 "sold".
User avatar
Axm
#SaveShenmueHD
News Poster
 
Joined: May 2003
Location: Fukuoka, Japan

Re: Future of Shenmue series after 2017

Postby Ziming » Tue Jul 21, 2015 7:33 am

Can you see the consequent games being funded by Kickstarter?

It's unlikely but it's still a possibility. Shenmue 3 needed a Kickstarter because noone wanted to take the risk of making the game in the past 14 years. I would hope that the situation wouldn't arise again. - Cedric Biscay


https://www.reddit.com/r/translator/com ... t_shenmue/
User avatar
Ziming
Banned
Banned
 
Joined: November 2003

Re: Future of Shenmue series after 2017

Postby Three Blades » Tue Jul 21, 2015 7:35 am

It would still be cool if there was a donation option of some kind where we can get cool rewards like with the Kickstarter.
User avatar
Three Blades
Man Mo Acolyte
Man Mo Acolyte
 
Joined: June 2015
Favorite title: Shenmue II

Re: Future of Shenmue series after 2017

Postby shenmue852 » Tue Jul 21, 2015 7:44 am

Axm wrote:
Sonoshee wrote:I hope they take in to account the amount already pre-sold through the Kickstarter.

Ya thats about 70,000 "sold".


so they have to sell an extra 70k for profitability? or at least viability to get the game funded by a publisher next time around, because fundraising sales don't simulate the number an investor could expect to sell if he put in that amount of money...
shenmue852
Man Mo Acolyte
Man Mo Acolyte
 
Joined: July 2015

Re: Future of Shenmue series after 2017

Postby mrandyk » Tue Jul 21, 2015 7:58 am

I can't imagine another KS campaign will be necessary to get Shenmue 4 into development. There are basically no development costs for YS and there will be a lot of people who buy this game on hype alone (see Duke Nukem Forever) to net enough profit to keep the series going, perhaps even enough profit to make Shenmue 4's budget significantly larger than Shenmue 3.

The scenario that worries me is if the series is to be five games. If the fourth game doesn't sell well enough to keep the series going we would be right back into the situation we have been in for years. Another KS campaign wouldn't draw nearly the interest we had for Shenmue 3.
mrandyk
Man Mo Acolyte
Man Mo Acolyte
 
Joined: August 2009

Re: Future of Shenmue series after 2017

Postby hazuki90 » Tue Jul 21, 2015 8:04 am

If they would just open up PayPal like I said in my earlier topic with fans giving each month 5 or 10 dollars, we wont need to worry about the future of Shenmue
hazuki90
Asia Travel Representative
Asia Travel Representative
 
Joined: October 2010
Favorite title: Shenmue

Re: Future of Shenmue series after 2017

Postby Three Blades » Tue Jul 21, 2015 8:04 am

Any word yet on when that's going to be done?
Because I agree that with an always-open paypal option, the fans will easily keep the series alive (along with the revenue from selling the game)
User avatar
Three Blades
Man Mo Acolyte
Man Mo Acolyte
 
Joined: June 2015
Favorite title: Shenmue II

Re: Future of Shenmue series after 2017

Postby Yokosuka » Tue Jul 21, 2015 8:07 am

From 2010 (Publishers include development, marketing and other expenses) :
Image
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/enterta ... -game.html

Remember that YSnet is actually the publisher of the PS4 version and that the retail release is not guaranteed.
User avatar
Yokosuka
Machine Gun Fist
Machine Gun Fist
 
Joined: August 2014
Location: France
Favorite title: Shenmue II
Currently playing: Rocket League

Re: Future of Shenmue series after 2017

Postby hazuki90 » Tue Jul 21, 2015 8:11 am

Yokosuka wrote: From 2010 (Publishers include development, marketing and other expenses) :
Image
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/enterta ... -game.html

Remember that YSnet is actually the publisher of the PS4 version and that the retail release is not guaranteed.


If YSnet is the publisher, then what the hell is sony role ??
hazuki90
Asia Travel Representative
Asia Travel Representative
 
Joined: October 2010
Favorite title: Shenmue

Re: Future of Shenmue series after 2017

Postby Hyo Razuki » Tue Jul 21, 2015 8:24 am

Of course we don't know how long Shenmue's Kickstarter record is gonna last. But being the record-breaking video game on KS at the time and spending about 16 or 17 years in development hell, S3 will surely get a lot of hype from gaming media once it comes out. With Sony helping out with the marketing, I think S3 has a very good chance of being profitable.

If S3 makes a good profit, I could see Sega (or Sony) funding the fourth one. Maybe Sega can strike a joint deal with Yu and with Sony on this. Like Yu will develop S4 in house at Sega, Sega will fund development costs, Sony will help with marketing again and in return S4 would again be a PS4 console-exclusive.

That said, I also do hope for S4 to be the last game in the saga. I reckon the PS5 will come out in 2018 or maybe 2019. If, let's say, S4 comes out in 2019, two years after S3, it could be one of the last major PS4 titles. But that would also mean we would not get to see S5 before 2021 or something like that, so S5 would have to be on PS5.

But making S5 a PS5 game would make it way more expensive to make than S4 which would still basically be the same game as S3 texture and fighting system-wise and so on, just with new places and a different story.
User avatar
Hyo Razuki
"After Burner...Great!"
"After Burner...Great!"
 
Joined: June 2015

Next

Return to Shenmue III

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest

Powered by phpBB © 2000-
ShenmueDojo.net