Sales for Shenmue 4

[James Brown]

Not sure if this has been answered or already something that's known, i'm unaware of it if...but was wondering whether the 67k+ game tier pledges counted towards the sales of Shenmue 3 when the game is released? It's been known that Yu says Shenmue 4 will depend on the sales of Shenmue 3, but wasn't sure if we already had a 67k+ headstart on the sales?

Also just cause I didn't want to make another topic, can anyone tell me when "Game of the Year's" end? I feel like there's a weird system in place where they already pick the game of the year before the year is out. Just thinking if Shenmue 3 would end up missing out on the current year if it is to keep it's 2017 December release date.

[James Brown]

Regarding your first question :
None of these tiers should count towards final game sales, since they’re directly funding development. Essentially, backers interested in Shenmue 4 should pick up a retail copy of S3.

Somewhat similar topic:
http://www.shenmuedojo.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=48851

[Zoltor]

Regarding your first question :
None of these tiers should count towards final game sales, since they’re directly funding development. Essentially, backers interested in Shenmue 4 should pick up a retail copy of S3.

Somewhat similar topic:
http://www.shenmuedojo.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=48851

Yea, Infact I'm not even going to open my Backer version, I'm not only going to buy the retail version, but I'm going to buy a PS 4, PC and any LE releases.

To Sony: Don't be cheap, release to LE version, one with a Dragon Mirror, and the other with a Phoenix Mirror

[Hanzumon]

We have two options on shenmue 4:

1) If Shenmue III is a big success, then Sega and Sony will pay the next Game.

2) If Shenmue III is not a big success, then Yu Suzuki will launch a last kickstarter-campaign to bring us the last Chapter on the Shenmue-Saga

I hope for option number one, but I don´t have a problem to support a Shenmue IV, V or HD-Remakes on kickstarter or paypal ...

[James Brown]

Can we guess how many will likely buy this game considering it's so niche? Let's consider the popularity of the PS4 and it's ever growing console user base, which will likely be around 50-60 million by 2017. Then there's PC gaming and steam platform which provides a easy digital distributional platform.

The fanbase hype will only take it so far. This includes word of mouth and sharing multimedia on popular sites like Twitter, Facebook, and Youtube. As a third party title let's also factor in how Sony is going to promote this game. Assuming we get some really eye catching cinematic teasers/trailers at future E3 shows. Also consider the possibility of Shenmue 1/2 HD by SEGA which we think might happen.

Taking all this into account what should be our most realistic expectations? Will it be enough to guarantee a Shenmue 4?

[James Brown]

Also just cause I didn't want to make another topic, can anyone tell me when "Game of the Year's" end? I feel like there's a weird system in place where they already pick the game of the year before the year is out. Just thinking if Shenmue 3 would end up missing out on the current year if it is to keep it's 2017 December release date.

I don't know the cut off date, or if this is the award you're thinking of, but The Witcher 3 has already been named Game of the Year at the Golden Joystick Awards. So any game with a December 2017 release date wouldn't qualify for consideration until the 2018 selection, by which time I would assume it stands a lesser chance of winning - but I haven't tested that theory against a list of past winners.

[Yokosuka]

The current flop of The Rise of Tomb Raider is a little stressful.

[Zoltor]

The current flop of The Rise of Tomb Raider is a little stressful.

It makes sense for that to sell like crap, serves them right for shoving microtransactions into it.

[Mark James G]

Can we guess how many will likely buy this game considering it's so niche? Let's consider the popularity of the PS4 and it's ever growing console user base, which will likely be around 50-60 million by 2017. Then there's PC gaming and steam platform which provides a easy digital distributional platform.

The fanbase hype will only take it so far. This includes word of mouth and sharing multimedia on popular sites like Twitter, Facebook, and Youtube. As a third party title let's also factor in how Sony is going to promote this game. Assuming we get some really eye catching cinematic teasers/trailers at future E3 shows. Also consider the possibility of Shenmue 1/2 HD by SEGA which we think might happen.

Taking all this into account what should be our most realistic expectations? Will it be enough to guarantee a Shenmue 4?

That's the real question, isn't it? I asked a good friend of mine who is an economist in training and had him run over the sale figures. He says that "The Shenmue series is not widely known and although it has a die-hard audience it'll do mediocre in sales and will likely break even. Though it depends on the actual game; if it appeals to a wider audience or is designed in a way to attract a mainstream audience it has the chance to surge. If it's designed for the hard-core players in mind then it'll make just enough to cover the costs."

His interest in it is only because I have interest in it. So really we'll just have to see the direction Team Yu goes with this game and how it's molded.

[Hanzumon]

The current flop of The Rise of Tomb Raider is a little stressful.

The Problem of Tomb Raider is, that the game is a xbox exclusive the first 12 months.

The most Lara Croft Fans are Playstation-Gamer and they wait for the PS4-release of the game next year ...

[Axm]

Also Tomb Raider came out the same day as Fallout 4 and in between abunch of other AAA titles..regardless im sure it'll sell fine eventually though.

But to answer Ziming, hopefully for the sake of Shenmue 3 it gets released in the late Spring or Summer time, when people are itching to play anything new.
If Shenmue 3 gets released in the fall or winter it'll be eaten alive by the likes of a Final Fantasy 7 Remake, The Last Guardian, The Last of Us 2 or whatever comes out around then.

[James Brown]

Also just cause I didn't want to make another topic, can anyone tell me when "Game of the Year's" end? I feel like there's a weird system in place where they already pick the game of the year before the year is out. Just thinking if Shenmue 3 would end up missing out on the current year if it is to keep it's 2017 December release date.

I don't know the cut off date, or if this is the award you're thinking of, but The Witcher 3 has already been named Game of the Year at the Golden Joystick Awards. So any game with a December 2017 release date wouldn't qualify for consideration until the 2018 selection, by which time I would assume it stands a lesser chance of winning - but I haven't tested that theory against a list of past winners.

Yes that's what I thought...I know some games are re-released just to put the words "Game of the Year Edition" on the box, and maybe group together all the DLC or whatever. I'm not saying that Shenmue 3 would be considered anyways, but like you say will probably have even less of a chance because by the time the next one comes around most will have forgotten.

That's slightly disappointing that the sales we already have aren't going to be taken into account as I would have thought most of the people that actually want the game will have already backed it, and I wouldn't see many buying multiple copies. We've just got to hope that the game is marketed well and the first 2 are re-released and bring in new fans, and ultimately Shenmue 3 has no major competition out at the time so people are more willing to "give it a go"

[punkmanced]

Yeah…it’s quintessential for backers to realize they’re only funding development, and nothing more.

Game sales = 0
We all need to pick up at least one retail copy, come launch day, to contribute towards anything “real” in terms of sales…and I’m not so sure that 70K backers will translate into 70K additional retail copies sold :/

[Ziming]

But to answer Ziming, hopefully for the sake of Shenmue 3 it gets released in the late Spring or Summer time, when people are itching to play anything new.

What if the demo of the game is released during this time? Will having positive feedback/reactions to it encourage consumers to purchase the full game?

[fittersau]

Already backed a PS4 and PC copies. Need those fence sitters to step up and buy the game. Their excuse is they never back a game via kickstarter or they are not sure Suzuki can reignite the magic.

For the fence sitters and general public, this is where we hope Sony's partnership and third party productions come in to hype the bejesus out of Shenmue 3 as the next need to play RPG experience.