Hey y'all - I think it's time for some perspective for how successful this kickstarter has been, all things considered.
1) First off, against all odds we are finally getting Shenmue III! Holy shit, we've been waiting for this for 14 years! We've remained rabid fans for this entire time and many of you have been going nuts getting the word out, getting a social media presence, bombarding anyone you can to share your love of the game. This is easily the craziest gaming community (and I mean that in a good way, of course :-P). We were the fastest game to reach $1M and $2M!
2) The success of the kickstarter is even more impressive when you consider Shenmue III is only on two platforms. Mighty No. 9 is on ten platforms, and Bloodstained is on seven. That pretty significantly limits the amount of potential pledges you can get. If there was going to be an Xbone version of Shenmue III, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect that pledges could be up around an extra 15-20% (meaning, we'd currently be at around $4.5M funding and 55K backers). Considering this, it's still very possible we end up getting more funding than Bloodstained to become the most funded kickstarter game ever. That's pretty fucking awesome!
3) The number of backers != total number of pre-orders or sales. The average gamer is not like "us". There are a bunch of people who are skeptical about kickstarter and really don't see the point of putting in $30 for a game two and a half years before release. I have a few friends who are Shenmue fans who were super pumped for the announcement but haven't yet backed the project, and probably won't, but they'll buy the game at release.
For me personally, this is the first game I backed on kickstarter. I'm a big Tim Schafer/Double Fine fan, but I didn't back their kickstarter and ended up buying Broken Age upon release. I didn't back Bloodstained or Mighty No. 9, but will probably get those when they come out, too. This will probably be the only game I back on kickstarter as well (unless Shenmue IV gets a kickstarter!).
4) I would argue that while the kickstarter announcement at E3 helped the overall numbers, it also made us reach a saturation point much sooner. I believe without the on stage announcement we would have overall similar numbers to what we have now (maybe slightly less, but not significantly), but the numbers would have increased more steadily. Remember, people are still able to remove their pledges, so even if they pledge during the super duper E3 hype, they're still able to view the project from a distance once the hype dies down, so they're not a victim of an impulse buy.
5) We're not even at the midway point of the Kickstarter. We still have the $30 on the 3rd campaign and are awaiting more reward tiers. Maybe we get a PS4 physical release and a Paypal option. It's fine if we don't hit $10M - they'll figure something out. The success of this campaign could help ease investor risk, so it's possible the money is covered elsewhere (a post KS paypal option probably covers the rest, honestly). I don't think, in the grand scheme of things, an expertly run kickstarter campaign makes a huge difference (and let's not turn this into a topic about "that"). Let's continue to do our best spread the word. Remember that Bloodstained received $1.5M in pledges the last two days, so don't be too discouraged that things have died down a bit (also see point #4 again!)
So considering all these points, I would argue that in the end I'll consider this to be the most successful video game kickstarter - even if we fall just short of Bloodstained (though I'm still optimistic we'll hit around $6M).
Positive vibes - let's get sweaty!